D2.4 Analytical framework

The MATS project aims to expand and enhance the available knowledge on the relationships between agricultural markets, trade, investments, policy, environmental sustainability, and human well-being. It intends, through the improvement of the design, governance, and implementation of trade regimes and policies at the private sector, national, EU, African and global levels, to set a new benchmark in agricultural trade policy analysis to deliver novel solutions for the necessary sustainability transition. This deliverable presents the analytical framework developed, and adopted by MATS, to achieve such objective.

Systems thinking is used as the underlying approach for the development of the MATS analytical framework, because of the need to capture (i) vertical and (ii) horizontal dynamics. First, (i) agricultural trade affects several dynamics, from macro, to meso and ultimately micro. This high degree of vertical reach, which results in the emergence of several feedback loops, must be analysed systemically, across the entity of the food system. Second, (ii) agricultural trade policy affects the choices of actors, which result in social, economic, environmental, and governance dynamics. These dimensions of sustainable development are interconnected with one another and form additional feedback loops.

Building on the above, MATS proposes an analytical framework that is (i) anchored on a unified impact pathway arising from individual case-based impact pathways, (ii) focused on a harmonized set of multi-dimensional indicators to measure and assess progress towards multiple sustainability dimensions across a diverse set of case studies, and yet, in support of WP3, it is (ii) case-based, problem-driven and (iii) multi-method in the selection and use of relevant methods and models (both qualitative and quantitative representations of reality that support a better understanding of complexity) applicable to different case studies. Further, (iv) it uses past trends to learn about social, economic, environmental, and governance dynamics, and (v) uses forecasts to estimate the benefits and costs of sustainable trade policy, allowing to identify the required enabling conditions to unlock action (WP4), and finally formulate a unified transition pathways that triggers policy uptake (WP5).

Eight steps are identified for the implementation of the MATS analytical framework, in line with the use of a systemic approach, which is deemed essential for the assessment of all relevant facets of sustainability for agricultural trade policy. The eight-step process is presented below, and then applied to three selected case studies, as illustrative examples for application to all case studies. Thereby, all 15 case studies analysed in WP3 will adopt and use the same implementation process and the same types of indicators, to ensure consistency and coherence across case studies working toward the common impact pathway analysis.

Unlike other work in this field, MATS, via the use of this framework, aims at breaking silo-based thinking and analyses, offering a more holistic and comprehensive analysis of the extent to which policy affects behaviour, using an evidence-based approach aided by science.