Recognising, qualifying, and managing uncertainty in mineral exploration data and resource estimates

Uncertainty is present in all aspects of mineral exploration, resource evaluation, feasibility studies and operations. It represents a key contributor to both technical and commercial risk facing projects that requires considered, systematic management. Multiple sources of uncertainty are present at all stages of resource project development, from the earliest stages of exploration to completion of bankable feasibility studies. These may be classified as: 1. Internal: largely technical in nature and frequently able to be managed and even quantified through quality assurance measures and parallel collection of confirmatory data; and, 2. External: frequently associated with critical issues affecting security of tenure, access to land and permitting of specific work, particularly when land disturbance or disruption of existing land use may result. Bias, which is frequently an unintended consequence of a geoscientist's experience with comparable projects can also be a significant contributor to uncertainty. Every mineral deposit should be considered unique to help ensure that it is evaluated on its merits. Importing practices applied to the evaluation of other deposits helps to ensure that the contribution and value of previous experience is maximised, but care must be taken not to adopt a recipe approach that may overlook significant features that combine to determine the deposit's potential and development options. Opportunities for improved management of uncertainty exist in cross-pollination and adaption of techniques and experience between the minerals and oil and gas sectors. Mineral resource projects progress through a series of stages, each of which have distinct sources of uncertainty that become more diverse as projects mature. Maintenance of a project audit trail is essential. Transitioning from spreadsheets and file notes to a structured, curated and accessible set of records has benefits for any project and is supported by developments in cloud computing communications and information processing technologies.