Locking Down Violence: The COVID-19 Pandemic's Impact on Non-State Actor Violence

While the effects of non-state actor violence on public health outcomes

are well-known, the effects of public health crises like the COVID-19

pandemic on non-state actor violence are not. Lockdown measures,

widely used to stop the spread of disease in crises, we argue, are likely

to reduce non-state actor violence, especially in urban and non-base

areas. These measures deplete actors’ resources, reduce the number

of high-value civilian targets, and make it logistically more difficult to

conduct attacks. Using the example of ISIS, and taking advantage of

the exogenous nature of COVID-19 lockdowns, we find that curfews

and travel bans significantly reduce violence, especially in populated

and non-base areas. These effects are most likely due to short-term

changes in ISIS’s targets and logistics rather than its resources. These

findings provide important insights into the security aspects of public

health crises and offer novel findings into the general effectiveness of

two common counterinsurgency tools.