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Published July 6, 2023 | Version v1
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Approaching a thermal tipping point in the Eurasian boreal forest at its southern margin

Authors/Creators

  • 1. University of California, Davis
  • 2. William Paterson University
  • 3. Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory
  • 4. National University of Mongolia
  • 5. Goddard Institute for Space Studies
  • 6. Harvard University
  • 7. Yale University

Description

Climate change is increasing the intensity and frequency of extreme heat events. Ecological responses to extreme heat will depend on vegetation physiology and thermal tolerance. Here we report that Larix sibirica, a foundation species across boreal Eurasia, is vulnerable to extreme heat at its southern range margin due to its low thermal tolerance (Tcrit of photosynthesis: ~ 37–48 °C). Projections from CMIP6 Earth System Models (ESMs) suggest that leaf temperatures might exceed the 25th percentile of Larix sibirica's Tcrit by two to three days per year within the next two to three decades (by 2050) under high emission scenarios (SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5). This degree of warming will threaten the biome's continued ability to assimilate and sequester carbon. This work highlights that under high emission trajectories, we may approach an abrupt ecological tipping point in southern boreal Eurasian forests substantially sooner than ESM estimates that do not consider plant thermal tolerance traits.

Notes

Data can be opened using a text editor or Microsoft Excel.

Codes can be opened using a mix of R, Matlab, and Python.

Funding provided by: National Science Foundation
Crossref Funder Registry ID: http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100000001
Award Number: 1737788

Funding provided by: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Crossref Funder Registry ID: http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100000192
Award Number: NA18NWS4620043B

Funding provided by: H2020 Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions
Crossref Funder Registry ID: http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100010665
Award Number: 101031748

Funding provided by: National University of Mongolia
Crossref Funder Registry ID: http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100016993
Award Number: P2019-3634

Funding provided by: National Science Foundation
Crossref Funder Registry ID: http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100000001
Award Number: OISE-1743738

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r_matlab_python_codes.zip

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Additional details

Related works

Is source of
10.25338/B8TD2T (DOI)