All options, not silver bullets, needed to limit global warming to 1.5 °C: a scenario appraisal: high-resolution figures
Creators
- 1. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
- 2. Global Systems Institute, University of Exeter, Exeter, United Kingdom
- 3. Climate Service Center Germany (GERICS), Helmholtz-Zentrum Hereon, Hamburg 20095, Germany
- 4. German Environment Agency (UBA), Dessau-Roßlau, Saxony-Anhalt 06844, Germany
- 5. Institute for Global Environmental Strategies, Kanagawa, Japan
- 6. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg 2361, Austria
- 7. Global Futures Laboratory, Arizona State University, Tempe, Arizona 85287, United States of America
- 8. University of Exeter Business School, Exeter EX4 4PY, United Kingdom
Description
High resolution versions of Figure 2 and Figure S3 for the corrigendum of the paper "All options, not silver bullets, needed to limit global warming to 1.5 °C: a scenario appraisal" by Warszawski et al. (2021) published in Environmental Research Letters.
Fig. 2: Spider plots for each of the 22 scenarios in the filtered ensemble (the corresponding model and scenario is printed above each plot), in order of increasing coverage, Vi . Note that the AIM/CGE2.1 TERL_15D_LowCarbonTransportPolicy scenario has coverage of Vi=1, despite E2050 lying below themedium upper bound due to how the two energy-sector levers are combined to calculate the coverage (see Supplementary material). Each lever has been normalised to the high upper bound (the bold black inner circle on each plot; the absolute value of the upper bound is printed below the lever label). The centre of each spider plot corresponds to the minimum value across the entire ensemble of 50 scenarios for each lever. The medium upper bounds are shown as a dashed polygon. The absolute value of the lever for the given scenario is also printed on the plot. The top row contains the two scenarios singled out in figure 1(c), which exceed the SR1.5 remaining carbon budget for staying below 1.5 °C with a 50% likelihood; these two scenarios also have the lowest coverage of all scenarios in the filtered ensemble. For a similar plot of the complete ensemble of 1.5 °C scenarios with no or low overshoot (50 scenarios), see the supplement.
Fig. S3: Same as Fig. 2 in main text but for all 50 scenarios. Those scenarios shaded grey are categorised as ‘Below 1.5C’ in the SR1.5. All other scenarios fall into the ‘1.5C low overshoot’ category.
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Additional details
Related works
- Is new version of
- Journal article: 10.1088/1748-9326/abfeec (DOI)