Human capital as a factor of influence on macroeconomic dynamics in Ukraine

The subject of the study is the analysis of human capital as a factor influencing macroeconomic
dynamics in economic growth models; analysis of the impact of the human development index on
economic dynamics in Ukraine, in particular, in the context of the pandemic and military aggression of
the Russian Federation against Ukraine.
The purpose of writing the article is the author’s research on the problem of the influence of
social and humanitarian factors on economic dynamics in Ukraine.
The methodology of the work is the provisions of economic theory and the theory of system
analysis, economic–mathematical and statistical methods.
Results of the work – new features of the formation and development of human capital in
the conditions of war and pandemic were studied; using economic and mathematical methods, a
quantitative assessment of the impact of the human development index on the dynamics of Ukraine’s
real GDP was carried out, in particular, under scenarios that take into account the likely consequences
of the pandemic and military aggression of the Russian Federation against Ukraine.
Conclusions – in the conditions of the war in Ukraine and the continuation of the pandemic caused
by COVID–19, the human capital factor acquires significant exogenous features, since its formation/
preservation/development is largely influenced by exogenous factors, including: military aggression of
the Russian Federation against Ukraine; financial assistance to the state and humanitarian support
for temporarily displaced persons in Ukraine and abroad; expected foreign investments for the post–
war reconstruction of the Ukrainian economy, in particular, for the restoration of housing and social
infrastructure facilities; continuation of the COVID–19 pandemic.
The conducted economic and mathematical studies and the results of scenario calculations indicate
a significant positive impact of the human development index on the dynamics of real GDP in Ukraine,
which corresponds to the provisions of the theory of economic growth, confirms the importance
of human capital (the level of human potential development) for ensuring economic growth and
substantiates the importance of implementing effective social and humanitarian policy aimed at its
preservation and development.