A combined theory-based explanatory model for predicting tourists' travel intentions during the COVID-19 pandemic: the role of individual's assessment of the compliance with non-pharmaceutical interventions

This study examines the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and tourist's assessments of non-pharmaceutical publichealth interventions (NPIs) in relation to their travel intentions. It uses a combined theoretical model that incorporatesthe Domain-Specifc Risk-Taking Scale (DOSPERT) in the recreational domain, the Health Belief Model (HBM) and theTheory of Planned Behaviour (TPB). A large-scale population study that is representative of Switzerland has been carried out to validate the model (N=1683; 39% response rate). We use a regression model based on mean indices for ourexplanatory model. Health beliefs, namely perceived susceptibility and severity, are important predictors of travel intentions. The perceived benefts of and barriers to compliance with NPIs when travelling also have a substantial infuenceon travel intentions. The results demonstrated that the factors of the HBM tend to have a stronger infuence than othersignifcant factors, such as the perceived behavioural control of the TPB. As a situational context, the ability to work fromhome increases the intention to travel. The achievement of the present research is a validated empirical theory-basedmodel that is suitable for practical and managerial implications. It can be used to create and evaluate measures andinterventions that address the social psychological infuencing factors.