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Published October 14, 2022 | Version 3.4
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NGFS Climate Scenarios Data Set

  • 1. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), member of the Leibnitz Association, Potsdam, Germany
  • 2. International Institute of Applied System Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria
  • 3. Center for Global Sustainability, School of Public Policy, University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland, United States of America
  • 4. Center for Global Sustainability, School of Public Policy, University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland, United States of America, Pacific-Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), United States of America
  • 5. National Institute for Economic and Social Research (NIESR), London, United Kingdom
  • 6. University of Melbourne

Description

Download information

Please do not request a data download here.

Rather, the data is available for download at the NGFS Scenario Explorer under this download link: https://data.ece.iiasa.ac.at/ngfs-phase-3/#/downloads.

The license permits use of the scenario ensemble for scientific research and commercial use, but restricts redistribution of substantial parts of the data. Please refer to the FAQ and legal code for more information.

3.4 (14 October 2022)

Correction notice:

In the previous version of the NGFS Phase 3 data set, V3.3 (10.5281/zenodo.7181161), the updates for the NiGEM model were not included due to a processing error. This has been rectified is this version.

The rest of the updates mentioned in V3.3 were included correctly.

  • NiGEM:
    • Removed incorrect "index; 2017=100" from NiGEM units. Units affected are:
      • "index; 2017=100 US$ per barrel" corrected to "US$ per barrel"
      • "index; 2017=100 US$ per barrel(equiv)" corrected to "US$ per barrel(equiv)"
      • "% difference, index; 2017=100 US$ per barrel" corrected to "% difference, US$ per barrel"
      • "% difference, index; 2017=100 US$ per barrel(equiv)" corrected to "% difference, US$ per barrel(equiv)"
    • Transition effects now refer to the combined carbon pricing and recycling shocks rather than the carbon price only.
    • Transition effects have been removed for "Current Policies" which only experiences chronic physical impacts (no carbon pricing under current policies).
    • Combined effects now equal transition + physical.
    • A further combined data row has been added to the disorderly scenarios ("Delayed transition", "Divergent Net Zero") to show the output of an additional business confidence shock applied to the combined shock (see scenario description). These data are denoted by the "|Combined plus business confidence" suffix in the variable name.
    • Acute physical risk data have been added for the scenarios "Delayed transition", "Current Policies", "Net Zero 2050" for the world level. As these data are model independent, they have been added under "NiGEM NGFS v1.22" only (without any input model information).
    • Country specific currency information for units labelled as "local currency" has been added to the downloadable data under the "unit" column. It is added as a suffix e.g. "2017 prices; local currency ( US$ Bn)", when before it was "2017 prices; local currency ( US$ Bn)".
    • NiGEM baseline data previously did not carry the "NiGEM|" prefix in the variable name. This has been added now.
  • Downscaling:
    • Added the variable "Emissions|CO2|Industrial Processes" for all downscaled model results.

About the data set

This dataset contains a set of climate scenario that have been developed for the Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS). The NGFS is a group of 83 central banks and supervisors and 12 observers committed to sharing best practices, contributing to the development of climate– and environment–related risk management in the financial sector and mobilising mainstream finance to support the transition toward a sustainable economy.

The scenarios in this dataset were produced by NGFS Workstream 3 in partnership with an academic consortium from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), University of Maryland (UMD), Climate Analytics (CA), the Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule Zürich (ETH) and the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR).

The Phase 3 bespoke scenarios are generated by state-of-the-art well-established integrated assessment models (IAMs), namely GCAM, MESSAGEix-GLOBIOM and REMIND-MAgPIE. These models allow the estimation of global and regional mitigation costs, the analysis of energy system transition characteristics, the quantification of investments required to transform the energy system, and the identification of synergies and trade-off of sustainable development pathways.

Technical documentation is available to help users access the datasets. The documentation describes the models and variables, as well as provides detailed guidance for database users. Scenario presentation materials and the user guide are also available at the NGFS portal.

Notes

This work was made possible by grants from Bloomberg Philanthropies and ClimateWorks Foundation.

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  1. The License is proposed without any guaranty of any kind from all the entities (including by definition the Licensor for reading of this numbered clause Section 5 which have proceeded to the research, the data exploitation, the realization, the compilation, the production and the publication and the eventual update and the hosting of the scenarios. This exclusion clause concerns the entire scope of intervention of any kind of the entities working on the scenarios until it is made available to the public by any means that they deemed technologically appropriate.
  2. By the present free-License, the Licensor offers the Licensed Material as-is and as-available, and makes no representations or warranties of any kind concerning the Licensed Material;
  3. In no event will the Licensor and the other entities defined in a) be liable to the Licensee on any misuse, negligence, wrong use or wrong interpretation and for any losses, costs, expenses or damages rising out this public license or use of the license material. By copying, downloading, using the scenarios (or the licensed material), the licensee expressly agrees with the present license and accepts that no liability of the entities can be relied upon in any way specially in regard to the use of the scenarios. Therefore the licensee shall drop any action against the entities, or any of them, and shall expressly guarantee them, or any of them, against any third party action taking its source in the execution of the present license.
  4. The disclaimer of warranties and the exclusion of liability provided above shall be interpreted as an absolute disclaimer and waiver of all liability of all the entities defined in Section 5(a); in case of a limitation of liability is not allowed in full or in part in regard with the relevant laws, the disclaimer of warranties and limitation of liability provided above shall be interpreted in a manner that, to the extent possible, most closely approximates an absolute disclaimer and waiver of all liability of all the entities defined in Section 5(a);
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Changes compared to the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International Public License

The items in Section 2(a)(1) were changed from:

  1. reproduce and Share the Licensed Material, in whole or in part; and
  2. produce and reproduce, and Share, Adapted Material.

to:

  1. reproduce and Share parts of the Licensed Material, as long as this does not constitute a reproduction of a substantial portion of the Licensed Material;
  2. produce, reproduce and share Adapted Material, including but not limited to the creation of artwork (e.g., figures, online visualization tools), tables, and derived analysis.

For the avoidance of doubt: The data contained in the Licensed Material are subject to regular updates by the Licensor. For this reason, the reproduction of a substantial portion of the Licensed Material is prohibited; instead a reference or hyperlink to the repository or distribution of the Licensed Material should be given where necessary.

The introduction of Section 3(a)1 was changed from:

  1. If You Share the Licensed Material (including in modified form), […]

to:

  1. If You Share any part of the Licensed Material (including in modified form), […]

The first item of Section 4 was changed from:

  1. for the avoidance of doubt, Section 2(a)(1) grants You the right to extract, reuse, reproduce, and Share all or a substantial portion of the contents of the database;

to:

  1. for the avoidance of doubt, Section 2(a)(1) grants You the right to extract, reuse, reproduce, and Share contents of the database as long as the Shared contents do not include a substantial part of the Licensed Material;

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