Net-zero emissions aviation

Dataset for Net-zero emissions aviation paper.

Abstract: International climate goals imply reaching net-zero global carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions by roughly mid-century (and net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by the end of the century). Among the most difficult emissions to avoid will be those from aviation given the industry’s need for energy-dense liquid fuels that lack commercially competitive substitutes, and the difficult-to-abate non-CO₂ radiative forcing. Here, we systematically assess pathways to net-zero emissions aviation, exploring the potential contribution of different approaches. We find that ambitious reductions in demand for air transport and improvements in the energy efficiency of aircraft might avoid up to 61% (2.8 GtCO₂ equivalent) and 27% (1.2 GtCO_2-eq), respectively, of projected business-as-usual aviation emissions in 2050. However, further reductions will depend on replacing fossil jet fuel with large quantities of net-zero emissions biofuels or synthetic fuels (i.e. 2.5-19.8 EJ of sustainable aviation fuels)—which may be substantially more expensive. Moreover, up to 3.4 GtCO_2-eq may need to be removed from the atmosphere to compensate for non-CO₂ forcing for the sector to achieve net-zero GHG. Our results may inform investments and priorities for innovation by highlighting plausible pathways to net-zero emissions aviation, including the relative potential and trade-offs of changes in behavior, technology, and energy sources.