Published March 20, 2026 | Version 5.1
Dataset Restricted

NGFS Climate Scenarios Data Set

Authors/Creators

  • 1. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany
  • 2. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany & Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany
  • 3. Center for Global Sustainability, School of Public Policy, University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland, USA & Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland, USA & Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany
  • 4. Center for Global Sustainability, School of Public Policy, University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland, USA & Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland, USA
  • 5. Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland, USA & Center for Global Sustainability, School of Public Policy, University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland, USA
  • 6. Center for Global Sustainability, School of Public Policy, University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland, USA
  • 7. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria
  • 8. National Institute for Economic and Social Research (NIESR), London, United Kingdom
  • 9. Institute for Environmental Decisions, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
  • 10. Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland, USA
  • 11. University of Melbourne, Victoria, Australia & Climate Resource, Victoria, Australia
  • 12. University of Melbourne, Victoria, Australia & Climate Resource, Victoria, Australia & International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria
  • 13. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany & Faculty of Organic Agricultural Sciences, University of Kassel, Witzenhausen, Germany

Description

Download information

Please do not request a data download here.

Rather, the data is available for download at the NGFS Scenario Explorer under this download link: https://data.ece.iiasa.ac.at/ngfs/#/downloads. In order to download click on Guest login. You will be forwarded to the downloads page. At the bottom of the downloads page you can download the data.

The license permits use of the scenario ensemble for scientific research and commercial use, but restricts redistribution of substantial parts of the data. Please refer to the FAQ and legal code for more information.

Release Notes for Version 5.1

Changes

  • IAMs
    • REMIND-MAgPIE:
      • For scenarios o_1p5c and o_lowdem, the variables "Policy Cost|GDP Loss" and similar variables are slightly off
      • The variable "Capacity|Hydrogen" was twice as high as it was supposed to be, this is now fixed
    • (All IAMs) MAGICC: atmospheric concentrations of CO2, CH4 and N2O were erroneously not published in version 5.0, they are now part of the data set
  • Downscaling
    • Governance indicators are improved
  • NiGEM
    • A number of variables that NiGEM re-reported from Downscaling have now been removed for clarity. The variables can still be found as part of the Downscaling data.
      The following is a list of the variables dropped from NiGEM on the left and the corresponding Downscaling variables on the right:
      • Revenue from CB or BCA tax -> Revenue|Government|Tax|Carbon
      • Quarterly consumption of oil ; MnToe -> Primary Energy|Oil
      • Quarterly consumption of gas ; MnToe -> Primary Energy|Gas
      • Quarterly consumption of coal ; MnToe -> Primary Energy|Coal
      • Quarterly consumption of non-carbon ; MnToe-> Sum of: Primary Energy|Biomass, Primary Energy|Geothermal, Primary Energy|Hydro, Primary Energy|Solar, Primary Energy|Wind, Primary Energy|Nuclear
      • Energy consumption (total) ; MnToe -> This is a summation of NiGEM variables, there is not direct Downscaling correspondance, removed because all components have been removed
      • Carbon pricing ; $ per Tn CO2 -> Price|Carbon

Notice to users of NGFS long-term climate scenarios

The NGFS informs users that the academic paper underpinning the physical risk estimates in Phase V of its long-term scenarios, Kotz et al. (2024), has received critiques in a post-publication review at Nature. The authors have revised their analysis, with limited impacts on results. The updated paper still has to undergo peer-review.

The NGFS closely monitors the academic process and will incorporate any necessary updates in future iterations of its long-term scenarios.

Users are reminded that neither the NGFS, nor its member institutions, nor any person acting on their behalf, is responsible or liable for any reliance on, or for any use of the NGFS scenarios and/or supplementary documentation. This also applies to the use of the data produced under the scenarios – see section 5 in https://data.ene.iiasa.ac.at/ngfs/#/license. Thus, while the NGFS climate scenarios are certainly a helpful tool, they do not alleviate the responsibility of users, including banks and other (financial) organisations, to design and implement their own risk management frameworks.

About NGFS

The Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS) is a group of 127 central banks and supervisors and 20 observers committed to sharing best practices, contributing to the development of climate– and environment–related risk management in the financial sector and mobilising mainstream finance to support the transition toward a sustainable economy.

This Scenario Explorer is a web-based user interface for NGFS Scenarios. This provides intuitive visualizations & display of time series data and download of the data in multiple formats.

NGFS scenarios were produced by NGFS Workstream on Scenarios Design and Analysis in partnership with an academic consortium from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), University of Maryland (UMD), Climate Analytics (CA), and the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR). This work was made possible by grants from Bloomberg Philanthropies and ClimateWorks Foundation.

The bespoke scenarios developed in Phase 4 of this project are generated by state-of-the-art well-established integrated assessment models (IAMs), namely GCAM, MESSAGE-GLOBIOM and REMIND-MAgPIE, as well as the NiGEM macroeconomic model.

Notes

This work was made possible by grants from Bloomberg Philanthropies and ClimateWorks Foundation.

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Changes compared to the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International Public License

The items in Section 2(a)(1) were changed from:

  1. reproduce and Share the Licensed Material, in whole or in part; and
  2. produce and reproduce, and Share, Adapted Material.

to:

  1. reproduce and Share parts of the Licensed Material, as long as this does not constitute a reproduction of a substantial portion of the Licensed Material;
  2. produce, reproduce and share Adapted Material, including but not limited to the creation of artwork (e.g., figures, online visualization tools), tables, and derived analysis.

For the avoidance of doubt: The data contained in the Licensed Material are subject to regular updates by the Licensor. For this reason, the reproduction of a substantial portion of the Licensed Material is prohibited; instead a reference or hyperlink to the repository or distribution of the Licensed Material should be given where necessary.

The introduction of Section 3(a)1 was changed from:

  1. If You Share the Licensed Material (including in modified form), […]

to:

  1. If You Share any part of the Licensed Material (including in modified form), […]

The first item of Section 4 was changed from:

  1. for the avoidance of doubt, Section 2(a)(1) grants You the right to extract, reuse, reproduce, and Share all or a substantial portion of the contents of the database;

to:

  1. for the avoidance of doubt, Section 2(a)(1) grants You the right to extract, reuse, reproduce, and Share contents of the database as long as the Shared contents do not include a substantial part of the Licensed Material;

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