Published September 30, 2022 | Version v1
Conference paper Open

Improving forecasts for Karenia brevis in the Gulf of Mexico

Authors/Creators

  • 1. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Ocean Service, National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science 1305 East-West Highway, Silver Spring, MD 20910, U.S.A.
  • 2. Gulf of Mexico Coastal Ocean Observing System Regional Association, Department of Oceanography, 3146 TAMU, College Station, TX, 77843, U.S.A.
  • 3. CSS Inc. Under Contract to National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Ocean Service, National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science 1305 East-West Highway, Silver Spring, MD 20910, U.S.A.
  • 4. Fish and Wildlife Research Institute, Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission, 100 8th Ave SE, St. Petersburg, FL 33701, U.S.A.
  • 5. Texas A&M AgriLife Extension Service / Texas Sea Grant at Texas A&M University, 1390 West Expressway 83, San Benito, TX 78586, U.S.A.
  • 6. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Ocean Service, National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science, 101 Pivers Island Rd, Beaufort, NC 28516, U.S.A.

Description

Brevetoxins produced by Karenia brevis can be aerosolized and lead to severe respiratory irritation, with documented health risks for people with asthma. Economic impacts also occur as even healthy people avoid beach businesses when a “red tide” is reported to be in a region. However, the distribution of brevetoxin aerosol impact varies greatly, depending on patchiness of blooms and wind speed and direction. Locating and forecasting the blooms and respiratory risk are then necessary to reduce health and economic impacts. Previously, manual and qualitative evaluation determined the location and respiratory risk of these blooms at coarse resolutions (daily and county scale). The forecast has substantially been improved for nowcast timeliness with an automated capability that combines new resources and models. These include a chlorophyll-a fluorescence algorithm applied to Sentinel-3 satellite products, the HABscope (a microscope deployed by volunteers with digital video analysis), existing water sampling networks, improved weather forecasts, respiratory irritation risk models, and a bloom intensification forecast.

Notes

Corresponding author's email: richard.stumpf@noaa.gov

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