Published August 16, 2022 | Version v1
Journal article Open

Modeling in Mathematics in Estimation and Prediction of the Coronavirus Infections in Kitui County. A Case with Isolation of the Vulnerable

Authors/Creators

  • 1. Department of Mathematics and Actuarial Science, Catholic University of Eastern Africa, Nairobi, Kenya.

Description

Abstract: People’s lives have been affected socially by the coronavirus around the globe. Because of its social and economic impact, some measures for the prevention of the disease have been placed so that the spread can reduce. Quarantine, social distancing, and social distancing are some of the control measures. One that is considered to be very effective is for the vulnerable population to be isolated. A Model including six compartments was developed so that the number of people recovering may increase, so to achieve this vulnerable population was isolated. These six compartments are namely below; Susceptible, Exposed, Infected, Quarantined, Isolation of Vulnerable, and Recovered. Formulation of endemic equilibrium points, disease-free equilibrium, and local stability of disease-free equilibrium were theoretically proved. By use of the next generation matrix, derivation of basic reproductive number which is abbreviated as Rₒ was done. There is THE stability of disease-free equilibrium which is also abbreviated as a disease-free equilibrium when the basic reproductive number is less than one, which is . There is the stability of endemic equilibrium, the endemic equilibrium point when the basic reproductive number is greater than one, which is . There is instability in disease-free equilibrium when . Susceptible, Exposed, Infected, Isolated Vulnerable and Recovered population model was solved numerically by Runge Kutta 4th order; the drawn graphs also showed that when the vulnerable population is isolated there is an increment in the number of people who recover and a reduction in deaths. More isolation Centers so as to isolate vulnerable populations to recover more is recommended whereby the world health organization and ministry of health in Kenya need to put it in place.

Keywords: Isolation Infected, Coronavirus, Vulnerable, Pandemic, Quarantine, Susceptible, Exposed; and Recovery.

Title: Modeling in Mathematics in Estimation and Prediction of the Coronavirus Infections in Kitui County. A Case with Isolation of the Vulnerable

Author: Grace Mumbanu Maithya, Winnie Kaluki, Virginia Kitetu

International Journal of Novel Research in Physics Chemistry & Mathematics

ISSN 2394-9651

Vol. 9, Issue 2, May 2022 - August 2022

Page No: 40-54

Novelty Journals

Website: www.noveltyjournals.com

Published Date: 16-August-2022

DOI: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6997840

Paper Download Link (Source)

https://www.noveltyjournals.com/upload/paper/Modeling%20in%20Mathematics-16082022-3.pdf

Notes

International Journal of Novel Research in Physics Chemistry & Mathematics, ISSN 2394-9651, Novelty Journals, Website: www.noveltyjournals.com

Files

Modeling in Mathematics-16082022-3.pdf

Files (594.3 kB)

Name Size Download all
md5:a044a5248179d07613aaa0f0ffa9659d
594.3 kB Preview Download

Additional details

Related works

Is derived from
Journal article: https://www.noveltyjournals.com/upload/paper/Modeling%20in%20Mathematics-16082022-3.pdf (URL)
Is published in
Journal article: 2394-9651 (ISSN)

References

  • [1] Ferguson, N. M., Laydon, D., Nedjati-Gilani, G., Imai, N., Ainslie, K., Baguelin, M., ... & Ghani, A. C. (2020). Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID-19 mortality and healthcare demand.
  • [2] Regan, H., Mitra, E., & Gupta, S. (2020). Millions in India under coronavirus lockdown as major cities restrict daily life. CNN. URL: https://edition. cnn. com/2020/03/23/asia/coronavirus-covid-19-update-india-intl-hnk/index. html (access date: 12.07. 2020).
  • [3] Singh, R. P., & Chauhan, A. (2020). Impact of lockdown on air quality in India during COVID-19 pandemic. Air Quality, Atmosphere & Health, 13(8), 921-928.
  • [4] Nesteruk, I. (2020). Statistics based predictions of coronavirus 2019-nCoV spreading in mainland China.
  • [5] MedRxiv. Batista, M. Estimation of the final size of the coronavirus epidemic by the SIR model. Estim Final Size Coronavirus Epidemic by SIR Model 2020.
  • [6] Shetti, N. P., Srivastava, R. K., Sharma, S., Basu, S., & Aminabhavi, T. M. (2020). Invasion of novel corona virus (COVID-19) in Indian territory. Sensors International, 1, 100012.
  • [7] Zeb, A., Alzahrani, E., Erturk, V. S., & Zaman, G. (2020). Mathematical model for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) containing isolation class. BioMed research international, 2020.
  • [8] Kim, S., Seo, Y. B., & Jung, E. (2020). Prediction of COVID-19 transmission dynamics using a mathematical model considering behavior changes in Korea. Epidemiology and health, 42.
  • [9] Pan, Q., Gao, T., & He, M. (2020). Influence of isolation measures for patients with mild symptoms on the spread of COVID-19. Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, 139, 110022.
  • [10] Ghosh, A., Nundy, S., & Mallick, T. K. (2020). How India is dealing with COVID-19 pandemic. Sensors International, 1, 100021.
  • [11] Lin, Q., Zhao, S., Gao, D., Lou, Y., Yang, S., Musa, S. S., ... & He, D. (2020). A conceptual model for the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak in Wuhan, China with individual reaction and governmental action. International journal of infectious diseases, 93, 211-216.
  • [12] Chen, T. M., Rui, J., Wang, Q. P., Zhao, Z. Y., Cui, J. A., & Yin, L. (2020). A mathematical model for simulating the phase-based transmissibility of a novel coronavirus. Infectious diseases of poverty, 9(1), 1-8.
  • [13] Tang, B., Wang, X., Li, Q., Bragazzi, N. L., Tang, S., Xiao, Y., & Wu, J. (2020). Estimation of the transmission risk of the 2019-nCoV and its implication for public health interventions. Journal of clinical medicine, 9(2), 462.
  • [14] Sharma, S., Basu, S., Shetti, N. P., & Aminabhavi, T. M. (2020). Current treatment protocol for COVID-19 in India. Sensors International, 1, 100013.
  • [15] Kundu, A., Basu, S., Shetti, N. P., Malik, A. K., & Aminabhavi, T. M. (2020). The COVID-19 paradox: impact on India and developed nations of the world. Sensors International, 1, 100026.

Subjects

Paper Download Link (Source)
https://www.noveltyjournals.com/upload/paper/Modeling%20in%20Mathematics-16082022-3.pdf