National Center for Water Quality Research (NCWQR), Heidelberg University
Published April 16, 2013 | Version v1
Journal article Open

Record-setting algal bloom in Lake Erie caused by agricultural and meteorological trends consistent with expected future conditions

Description

ABSTRACT

In 2011, Lake Erie experienced the largest harmful algal bloom in its recorded history, with a peak intensity over three times greater than any previously observed bloom. Here we show that long-term trends in agricultural practices are consistent with increasing phosphorus loading to the western basin of the lake, and that these trends, coupled with meteorological conditions in spring 2011, produced record-breaking nutrient loads. An extended period of weak lake circulation then led to abnormally long residence times that incubated the bloom, and warm and quiescent conditions after bloom onset allowed algae to remain near the top of the water column and prevented flushing of nutrients from the system. We further find that all of these factors are consistent with expected future conditions. If a scientifically guided management plan to mitigate these impacts is not implemented, we can therefore expect this bloom to be a harbinger of future blooms in Lake Erie.

Notes

The authors thank Raisa Beletsky, Greg Lang, and David Schwab, who provided modeling support and Todd Marsee for assistance with graphic design. We acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme's Working Group on Coupled Modelling, which is responsible for the Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP), and we thank the climate modeling groups (listed in Table S3 of this paper) for producing and making available their model output. This material is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation (NSF) under Grants 1039043 and 1313897. Additional support was provided by NSF Grant 0927643 (to D.B.) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Center for Sponsored Coastal Ocean Research Grant NA07OAR432000 (to D.B., N.S.B., R.P.R., and D.S.). Support was provided by Lake Erie Protection Fund SG 406-2011 (to J.D.C. and T.B.B.). For CMIP, the US Department of Energy's Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison provided coordinating support and led development of software infrastructure in partnership with the Global Organization for Earth System Science Portals. This paper is Ecofore Lake Erie Contribution Number 12-009 and Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Contribution Number 1646, and Lake Erie Center Contribution Number 2013-09.

Files

Michalak et al. 2013 PNAS.pdf

Files (699.7 kB)

Name Size
md5:ae57b759f26e5626e18584895f5c601d
699.7 kB Preview Download

Additional details

References

  • Smith VH (2003) Eutrophication of freshwater and coastal marine ecosystems: A global problem. Environ Sci Pollut Res Int 10(2):126–139.
  • Qin BQ, et al. (2010) A drinking water crisis in Lake Taihu, China: Linkage to climatic variability and lake management. Environ Manage 45(1):105–112.
  • Schindler DW, Hecky RE, McCullough GK (2012) The rapid eutrophication of Lake Winnipeg: Greening under global change. J Great Lakes Res 38(Suppl 3):6–13.
  • Jöhnk KD, et al. (2008) Summer heatwaves promote blooms of harmful cyanobacteria. Glob Change Biol 14(3):495–512.
  • Dolan DM (1993) Point-source loadings of phosphorus to Lake Erie: 1986–1990. J Great Lakes Res 19(2):212–223.
  • GLWQA (1978) Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement. Available at http://www.epa. gov/greatlakes/glwqa/1978/index.html. Last accessed March 14, 2013.
  • De Pinto JV, Young TC, McIlroy LM (1986) Great lakes water quality improvement. Environ Sci Technol 20(8):752–759.
  • Bertram PE (1993) Total phosphorus and dissolved-oxygen trends in the Central Basin of Lake Erie, 1970–1991. J Great Lakes Res 19(2):224–236.
  • DiToro DM, Thomas NA, Herdendorf CE, Winfield RP, Connolly JP (1987) A post audit of a Lake Erie eutrophication model. J Great Lakes Res 13(4):801–825.
  • Makarewicz JC (1993) Phytoplankton biomass and species composition in Lake Erie, 1970 to 1987. J Great Lakes Res 19(2):258–274.
  • Burns NM, Rockwell DC, Bertram PE, Dolan DM, Ciborowski JJH (2005) Trends in temperature, Secchi depth, and dissolved oxygen depletion rates in the central basin of Lake Erie, 1983–2002. J Great Lakes Res 31(Suppl 2):35–49.
  • Rucinski DK, Beletsky D, DePinto JV, Schwab DJ, Scavia D (2010) A simple 1- dimensional, climate based dissolved oxygen model for the central basin of Lake Erie. J Great Lakes Res 36(3):465–476.
  • Conroy JD, Culver DA (2005) Do dreissenid mussels affect Lake Erie ecosystem stability processes? Am Midl Nat 153(1):20–32.
  • Bridgeman TB, Chaffin JD, Filbrun JE (2013) A novel method for tracking western Lake Erie Microcystis blooms, 2002–2011. J Great Lakes Res 39(1):83–89.
  • Bridgeman TB, Penamon WA (2010) Lyngbya wollei in western Lake Erie. J Great Lakes Res 36(1):167–171.
  • Strickland T, Fisher L, Korleski C (2010) Ohio Lake Erie Phosphorus Task Force Final Report (Ohio Environmental Protection Agency, Columbus, OH).
  • Bierman VJ, Kaur J, DePinto JV, Feist TJ, Dilks DW (2005) Modeling the role of zebra mussels in the proliferation of blue-green algae in Saginaw Bay, Lake Huron. J Great Lakes Res 31(1):32–55.
  • Nuisance and Harmful Algae Work Group (2011) Nuisance and Harmful Algae: 2009–2011 Priority Cycle Report. (Windsor, Ontario, Canada).
  • Vanderploeg HA, et al. (2001) Zebra mussel (Dreissena polymorpha) selective filtration promoted toxic Microcystis blooms in Saginaw Bay (Lake Huron) and Lake Erie. Can J Fish Aquat Sci 58(6):1208–1221.
  • Vanderploeg HA, et al. (2002) Dispersal and emerging ecological impacts of Ponto-Caspian species in the Laurentian Great Lakes. Can J Fish Aquat Sci 59(7):1209–1228.
  • Conroy JD, et al. (2005) Temporal trends in Lake Erie plankton biomass: Roles of external phosphorus loading and dreissenid mussels. J Great Lakes Res 31(Suppl 2): 89–110.
  • Petrie SA, Knapton RW (1999) Rapid increase and subsequent decline of zebra and quagga mussels in Long Point Bay, Lake Erie: Possible influence of waterfowl predation. J Great Lakes Res 25(4):772–782.
  • SOLEC (2012) Dreissenid Mussels: Zebra and Quagga mussels. Available at www. solecregistration.ca/documents/Dreissenid%20Mussels%20DRAFT%20Oct2011.pdf. Accessed March 14, 2013.
  • Smith DA, Matisoff G (2008) Sediment oxygen demand in the central basin of Lake Erie. J Great Lakes Res 34(4):731–744.
  • Lu Y, et al. (2010) [delta] 15N values in Lake Erie sediments as indicators of nitrogen biogeochemical dynamics during cultural eutrophication. Chem Geol 273(1–2):1–7.
  • Stumpf RP, Wynne TT, Baker DB, Fahnenstiel GL (2012) Interannual variability of cyanobacterial blooms in Lake Erie. PLoS ONE 7(8):e42444.
  • Chorus I, Bartram J (1999) Toxic Cyanobacteria in Water: A Guide to Their Public Health Consequences, Monitoring, and Management (Taylor & Francis, London).
  • Elser JJ (1999) The pathway to noxious cyanobacteria blooms in lakes: The food web as the final turn. Freshw Biol 42(3):537–543.
  • Hendzel LL, Hecky RE, Findlay DL (1994) Recent changes of N-2-fixation in Lake-227 in response to reduction of the N/P loading ratio. Can J Fish Aquat Sci 51(10):2247–2253.
  • Tilman D (1982) Resource Competition and Community Structure (Princeton Univ Press, Princeton, NJ), pp xi.
  • Smith VH (1983) Low nitrogen to phosphorus ratios favor dominance by blue-green algae in lake phytoplankton. Science 221(4611):669–671.
  • Konopka A, Brock TD (1978) Effect of temperature on blue-green algae (cyanobacteria) in lake mendota. Appl Environ Microbiol 36(4):572–576.
  • Zohary T, Breen CM (1989) Environmental factors favouring the formation of Microcystis aeruginosa hyperscums in a hypertrophic lake. Hydrobiologia 178(3): 179–192.
  • Arnold JG, Srinivasan R, Muttiah RS, Williams J (1998) Large area hydrologic modeling and assessment part I: Model development1. JAWRA Journal of the American Water Resources Association 34(1):73–89.
  • Daloğlu I, Cho KH, Scavia D (2012) Evaluating causes of trends in long-term dissolved reactive phosphorus loads to Lake Erie. Environ Sci Technol 46(19):10660–10666.
  • Wynne TT, Stumpf RP, Tomlinson MC, Dyble J (2010) Characterizing a cyanobacterial bloom in western Lake Erie using satellite imagery and meteorological data. Limnol Oceanogr 55(5):2025–2036.
  • NOAA (2012) Harmful Algal Blooms (HAB) in Lake Erie: Experimental HAB Bulletin Archive. (NOAA, Silver Spring, MD).
  • US Department of Agriculture (2012) Acreage. Available at www.usda.gov/nass/PUBS/TODAYRPT/acrg0612.pdf. Accessed March 14, 2013.
  • US Department of Agriculture (2012) USDA Agricultural Projections to 2021. Available at www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/archive_projections/USDAAgriculturalProjections2021. pdf. Accessed March 14, 2013.
  • Taylor KE, Stouffer RJ, Meehl GA (2012) An overview of Cmip5 and the experiment design. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 93(4):485–498.
  • Solomon S Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2007) Climate change 2007: The physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Cambridge Univ Press, Cambridge) pp viii, 996 p.
  • Pryor SC, et al. (2009) Wind speed trends over the contiguous United States, J Geophys Res-Atmos 114:D14105.
  • Vautard R, Cattiaux J, Yiou P, Thépaut J-N, Ciais P (2010) Northern hemisphere atmospheric stilling partly attributed to an increase in surface roughness. Nat Geosci 3(11):756–761.