What does the future hold for Biodiversity Hotspots? A systematic map exploring spatial patterns and knowledge gaps & clusters of ecological range shifts in plants

Research into ecological range shift has increased exponentially in recent years as ecologists attempt to understand responses to global change drivers. To our knowledge, we produced one of the first global systematic maps investigating terrestrial plant range shift studies. After screening >7,000 articles, we used “EviAtlas” to synthesise 294 studies into an open-source web map database. The results highlight Sub-Saharan Africa and Central America as understudied Hotspot regions. Studies are predominantly predictive in nature, highlighting difficulties in establishing long-term monitoring to measure empirical range shift on the ground. Moreover, most studies opt for correlative species distribution modelling techniques, rather than process-based (mechanistic) models. The application of most studies is to supply evidence on the impacts of climate change, for conservation and invasion management purposes. Adopting a research strategy that emphasises use of demographic, physiological, and species -or- genera-specific data is paramount for constructing models capable of accurately predicting future range shift.