D2.1 Definition of future scenarios

Scenarios form an essential part of climate change research and assessment. They help users to understand long-term consequences of near-term decisions and enable researchers to explore different possible futures in the context of fundamental future uncertainties.
The goal of Work Package 2 (WP2) in Flexi-Sync is to analyse the cost-efficient flexibility potential in the local or regional energy system. For this purpose, we design storylines or scenarios in which different sets of future energy system, energy markets and climate and energy policies are described and contrasted. Through scenario analysis in WP2, we will be able to provide the span of results on cost-efficient interactions between the district heating and electricity networks, and the building sector, while identifying the optimal investments in the demonstrator areas of Flexi-Sync by 2050 under different conditions and constraints.
The two scenario framings presented in this report, “100 % RES” and “Maximized flexibility”, have been identified based on a review of several scenario frameworks at international (global), regional, national, and urban (city) levels. The resulting scenario narratives have been fine-tuned with information from the local visions and development plans, as well as with input from stakeholders. The scenarios will later serve as basis for quantitative in-data assumptions for the modelling assessments to be performed in WP2 of the Flexi-Sync project.