Published July 7, 2021 | Version v1.0.0
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Mainshock+aftershock forecasts from Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models (RELM) experiment

  • 1. University of Southern California
  • 2. University of Bristol
  • 3. GFZ Helmholtz Centre Potsdam

Description

Contains mainshock+aftershock forecasts produced by various members of the working group for the development of Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models. These forecasts were obtained from the Collaboratory of the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) testing center hosted by the Southern California Earthquake Center at the University of Southern California.

Forecasts are described by the following publications

  1. Helmstetter et al. (2007) with aftershocks
  2. Kagan et al. (2007)
  3. Shen et al. (2007)
  4. Bird & Liu (2007)
  5. Ebel et al. (2007) with aftershocks

Forecasts are stored in tab separated value files with the following fields (the first row of data is shown as an example):

LON_0  LON_1   LAT_0   LAT_1   DEPTH_0 DEPTH_1 MAG_0   MAG_1   RATE  FLAG
-125.4  -125.3  40.1    40.2    0.0     30.0    4.95    5.05    5.8499099999999998e-04  1

References

Bird, P., and Z. Liu (2007). Seismic Hazard Inferred from Tectonics: California, Seismological  Research Letters 78 37-48.

Ebel, J. E., D. W. Chambers, A. L. Kafka, and J. A. Baglivo (2007). Non-Poissonian Earthquake Clustering and the Hidden Markov Model as Bases for Earthquake Forecasting in California, Seismological  Research Letters 78 57-65.

Helmstetter, A., Y. Y. Kagan, and D. D. Jackson (2007). High-resolution Time-independent Grid-based Forecast for M >= 5 Earthquakes in California, Seismological  Research Letters 78 78-86.

Kagan, Y. Y., D. D. Jackson, and Y. Rong (2007). A Testable Five-Year Forecast of Moderate and Large Earthquakes in Southern California Based on Smoothed Seismicity, Seismological  Research Letters 78 94-98.

Shen, Z.-K., D. D. Jackson, and Y. Y. Kagan (2007). Implications of Geodetic Strain Rate for Future Earthquakes, with a Five-Year Forecast of M5 Earthquakes in Southern California, Seismological  Research Letters 78 116-120

 

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