Import substitution policy effectiveness assessment in industry: methodological tools

Russia's transition to non-oil development model generates a new vector of industrial policy, focused on the implementation of projects of import substitution. This implies the need to develop methods and tools to conduct a comprehensive analysis of the level of import dependence of domestic enterprises, but also to give an objective assessment of the effectiveness of the implementation of projects of import substitution. The purpose of this article is to develop such tools. The hypothesis of the study is based on the judgment that the effectiveness of implementing a rational policy of import substitution should be evaluated at the macro-, meso- and microleves.

The article shows a cybernetic representation of the functioning of the innovative potential estimation system for industrial enterprises involved in the import substitution project. Its Association with the economic potential of higher-level systems. It is proved that the management potential of import substitution in industry should be considered as a multicriteria problem, and the efficiency of which is expressed in obtaining economic effects at different levels of management. At the micro level, the implementation of projects of import substitution leads to increased competitiveness in domestic and foreign markets. At the macro and the meso level, the reduction of import dependence allows to overcome the stagnation which contributes to the growth of national security. Tools include the following indicators: the rate of import substitution, the import coefficient of the load, the coefficient of the import scope, the price superiority ratio of foreign trade and others. The proposed tools were tested by assessing the efficiency of project implementation import substitution in furniture companies. As well as the possibility of using the developed tools to assess the effectiveness of the implementation import substitution in the Republic of Belarus and the Russian Federation. The calculations results show that in fact the ongoing projects of import substitution yielded significant economic effect on the level of individual industrial enterprises, and at the country level.

It presents a sequence of actions when deciding on the feasibility industrial import substitution projects. The proposed Toolkit can be easily adapted to the specifics of the enterprises in other branches and regions. The conclusion about the possible application of the presented tools for assessing the import substitution policy efficiency in the industry to objectively assess the effectiveness of the implementation on the real or potential projects.