Low Energy Demand (LED) scenario database hosted by IIASA

The database presents the scenario results of an exploratory research, carried out at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA): the Low Energy Demand (LED) study (Grubler et al. 2018). The LED scenario explored how far transformative changes that combine technological changes, end-use efficiency, and new business models for energy service provision can lead for lowering energy demand, and how these changes could drive deep decarbonisation in the long-term.

The scenario development methodology included a bottom-up analysis of how currently existing, though often embryonic, social, institutional, and technological trends could become mainstream with resulting step-changes in efficiency and resulting lowered energy demand. The bottom-up demand estimations were then further explored for their supply side and emissions and climate implications with a top-down modeling framework drawing on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) framework (Riahi et al. 2017).

The results show that global final energy demands can be drastically reduced in 2050, to around 245 EJ/yr, or 40% lower than today, whilst significantly expanding human welfare and reducing global development inequalities. According to the knowledge of the authors, LED is the lowest long-term global energy demand scenario ever published. The LED scenario meets the 1.5°C climate target in 2100 without overshoot and keeps the global mean temperature increase below 1.5°C with a probability of more than 60%, without requiring controversial negative emission technologies, such as bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS), that figure prominently in the emission scenario literature (Rogelj et al. 2015, Anderson and Peters 2016, Creutzig et al. 2016, Smith et al. 2016).

Furthermore, the beneficial impacts of the LED scenario on a range of other sustainable development goals are also shown, demonstrating that efficiency of energy services provision plays a critical role in reaching low-energy futures without compromising increased living standards in the Global South, while at the same time reducing adverse social and environmental impacts of climate mitigation strategies that focus predominantly on large-scale supply-side transformations.

The research is published in a peer-reviewed article in Nature Energy (Grubler et al. 2018) with ample supplementary information. Water consumption and withdrawal data are published in Parkinson et al. (2018).

The data is available for download from the LED Database.