Group performance and success of project bids within the framework of the «Federal target program for research and development in priority areas of development of the Russian scientific and technological complex for 2014–2020»

The article considers the inluence of speciic characteristics of competing participant groups on the probability of receiving public subsidies within the framework of the Federal Target Program for Research and Development in Priority Areas of Development of the Russian Scientiic and Technological Complex for 2014–2020. We studied the statistical relationships between the probability of a winning bid in the competition and the parameters of groups: age, the number of performers, publication activity indicators, shares of researchers with academic degrees, and the proportion of scientists in the team. In the article it is shown that the extremes of distributions by the Offeror and the Russian population by age are almost identical. The article reveals that the maximum win probability corresponds to an average age of about 43 years. In the article it is also shown that larger groups are more likely to become a winner. We studied the effect of scientometric indices on a performer’s application for the probability of its victory. It is shown that the applications of higher average index Hirsch performers are more likely to win. The article covers the dependence of a bid’s chances on the proportion of scientists and on the share of researchers with academic degrees in a team. It is shown that an increase in the proportion of scientists has a positive effect, and that probability of winning is essentially independent from the proportion of researchers with academic degrees.