Provisioning forest and conservation science with European tree species distribution models under climate change

Estimating shifts in the current range of forest tree species is crucial for formulating adaptive management strategies such as assisted migration. Ecological niche models have been the most widely used tools to estimate the potential climatic suitability of species worldwide. The reliability of such estimations depends on the model algorithm and the input data such as climate and species occurrence. We developed a dataset of the potential distribution of seven ecologically and economically important tree species of Europe in terms of their climatic suitability with an ensemble approach while accounting for uncertainty due to model algorithms. The distribution models shall be the basis for follow-up studies in forest and conservation science.