Effect of climate change on energy consumption in buildings

Most buildings have an expected lifetime of 60 to over 100 years, during which they offer a shelter from weather to human beings, animals and property. Predictable climatic impacts can be successfully managed by an adequate construction. Some combinations of building materials and designs show better durability and performance than others. How possible deviations in predicted climatic loads may affect the building designed, e.g. expected response? Climate change scenarios for the future build on emissions scenarios and climate model simulations. The uncertainties regarding future population growth and economic development make it impossible to rely on any simple forecasts for the future. Instead there has been a development of different scenarios all with their specific emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosol precursors. Common to climate change scenarios is an increase in the global mean temperature. By the end of the century the increase may be 1.8-4.0oC depending on which emissions scenario that is chosen (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2007). This paper gives an overview of future climate scenarios for Sweden and discusses: firstly, weather design conditions in terms of deviations to presently used climatic loads for buildings' energy design and, secondly, some possible results on energy consumption in buildings in respect to climate change scenarios.