A statistical method based on Ensemble probability density function for the prediction of "Wind Days"

Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models are often used to predict meteorological events in a deterministic way. In recent years, operational Ensemble Prediction Systems are able to take into account some of the errors affecting the NWP models, and allow to estimate the probability of occurrence. In the traditional approach, this probability is given by the percentage of ensemble members predicting the event. In this study, we propose an alternative method to estimate the probability of occurrence, based on the ensemble probability density function (PDF), which takes into account only random errors unavoidably affecting the model. To estimate its reliability, we compare this method with classical categorical and probabilistic approaches by using different global models: ECMWF, GFS, and GEFS.