Published April 15, 2018
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Okun yasası bağlamında ekonomik büyüme ve işsizlik arasındaki ilişkinin ekonometrik analizi: Türkiye ekonomisinden kanıtlar (2000:Q1-2017:Q4)
Authors/Creators
- 1. Ağrı İbrahim Çeçen Üniversitesi
- 2. Atatürk Üniversitesi
Description
In this study, the relationship between economic growth and unemployment rates in Turkey is investigated by employing time series analysis under the difference, gap and dynamic models of Okun’s Law for the period 2000:Q1-2017: Q4. In this context, the study aims to evaluate the valid theoretical and empirical relationship between economic growth and unemployment rates under the Okun’s Law for Turkish economy. Results of the difference model indicate that zero real economic growth is associated with an increase in the unemployment rate of 0.38% in a given quarter in the research period and each 1 percentage point of real economic growth above 5.72 % would lead to a fall in the unemployment rate of 0.067% in the Turkish economy. Further, results of the gap model reveal that 1 percentage point of real economic growth under 5.72% is associated with an increase in the unemployment rates of 0.071% and 0.105%, respectively. The results of the gap model also indicate that the full employment level of the unemployment rate is 9.82 % in a given quarter in the research period. Finally, results of the dynamic model reveal that an increase in the real economic growth in Turkish economy would lead to a decrease in the unemployment rate of 0.078% in a given quarter. All these results reveal that the counter-directional periodic relationship between economic growth and unemployment rates is valid with different outcomes of the difference, gap and dynamic models under the Okun’s Law in the Turkish economy for the research period
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References
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