VALUE-CHAIN POSITION AND INVESTMENT ATTRACTIVENESS IN UZBEKISTAN'S TEXTILE INDUSTRY: EVIDENCE FROM 2026 EXPORT DATA

Background: Investment in textile manufacturing is often evaluated by expenditure and export growth, while production-chain position and the ability to use capital efficiently receive less explicit attention. Objective: This study examines what Uzbekistan’s 2026 textile-export composition reveals about investment screening at different stages of the textile value chain. Methods: A documentary analysis was conducted using three releases of the National Statistics Committee (January, January–June and January–August 2026), relevant industrial-policy documents and peer-reviewed literature. Product shares were compared, the finished-product-to-yarn export ratio was calculated, and a descriptive composition-distance measure was used. A conditional investment-screening protocol was then developed. Results: Finished textile products represented 51–53% of exports across the published cumulative windows, whereas yarn represented 31–32%. In January–August, textile exports were approximately USD 2.1 billion, an increase of 26.9% over the corresponding period of 2025; the finished-product-to-yarn value-share ratio was 1.59. Changes in cumulative product shares were small, but the data cannot establish enterprise-level investment returns. Conclusion: Export expansion and deeper processing should not be treated as interchangeable indicators of investment attractiveness. A value-chain-oriented screening protocol can distinguish capacity constraints, resource inefficiency and market-access risks before capital expenditure is approved. The protocol requires enterprise-level validation before its performance can be claimed.