Uneven climate risks in Europe: an analysis at subnational level

This study quantifies the joint long-term economic impacts of climate damages across Europe, using MILES, a high-resolution open-economy Solow model. The framework considers capital and labor mobility across more than a thousand regions. The economic model integrates geophysical bottom-up projections of climate damages as exogenous shocks, including such events as floods, droughts, and wildfires. Results show that European regions face substantial though uneven economic losses as global warming intensifies.Under moderate warming, expected losses remain modest but already affect tens of millions of people; under high warming, impacts increase non-linearly for Southern and coastal regions in particular.