Agricultural GHG Emission Trajectories and Mitigation Pathways for India: A Scenario-Based Analysis using the AFOLU_India Model

Agriculture accounts for over 14% of India's total greenhouse gas emissions and is one of the most complex sector to decarbonize due to its inextricable connections to food security, rural livelihoods, and demographic expansion. This study introduces the AFOLU-India model, a customized adaptation of the AFOLUB model that is recalibrated for Indian agricultural systems, emission factors, and policy parameters. It aims to project greenhouse gas emissions and assess the mitigation potential and abatement costs of countermeasures applied to four agricultural emission sources: enteric fermentation, manure management, managed soils, and rice cultivation, for the year 2050.

Four scenarios are constructed based on two government reports: a CPS that mirrors existing trajectories; a Viksit Bharat scenario that corresponds with India’s high-income growth aspirations; a Net Zero (NZ) scenario aimed at deep decarbonization; and an integrated scenario that combines both developmental and climatic objectives. Total agricultural greenhouse gas emissions are projected to increase from roughly 345 Mt CO₂eq in 2005 to between 390 and 505 Mt CO₂eq by 2050 across all four scenarios, with enteric fermentation consistently accounting for 55% of the total emissions.

Across scenarios, the key findings are: (a) the total mitigation potential without a carbon price is estimated to be between 16 and 22 Mt CO₂eq by 2050 (4–6% of projected emissions), with minimal additional benefits from a USD 25/t CO₂eq carbon price, highlighting the importance of non-price policy instruments in India's agricultural climate transition; (b) most of the countermeasures are ‘No Regret’ options, as they simultaneously reduce emissions while saving cost; (c) the following are the most cost effective countermeasures by source of emission, Feeding Bypass Protein and balanced ration for enteric fermentation, System of Rice Intensification (SRI) for rice, and Need based fertilizer application instead of complete fertilizer subsidy elimination for managed soil.