Energy Supply in the CETO2026 Scenario – A high detail, policy-oriented deep-decarbonization scenario for the EU

This study presents the energy supply findings of the POTEnCIA CETO 2026 Scenario, a technology-driven, policy-oriented pathway for deep decarbonization of the EU energy system in strict compliance with the European Climate Law (ECL). Developed using the POTEnCIA hybrid partial equilibrium model, the scenario integrates the latest National Energy and Climate Plans (NECPs), EU-wide regulatory instruments, and techno-economic assumptions aligned with the European Commission's 2040 Climate Target framework. Historical calibration draws on the JRC Integrated Database of the European Energy System (JRC-IDEES), with 2023 as the base year.

The scenario rests on three pillars: legislative frameworks, historical data calibration, and techno-economic assumptions. The ECL mandates a 55% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions relative to 1990 levels by 2030, an 85% reduction by 2040, and net-zero by 2050. Combining these targets with a system-wide carbon value drives rapid electrification and efficiency gains across all end-use sectors.

Total electricity demand more than doubles between 2023 and 2050 reaching over 6000 TWh, driven primarily by electrolytic hydrogen production and road transport electrification. Coal is fully phased out by 2030, while wind and solar expand to supply 75% of electricity generation by 2050. Nuclear remains significant in line with national plans, and natural gas continues to manage renewable intermittency.

Electrolytic hydrogen demand grows to 113 Mtoe (39 Mt H₂) by 2050. Initially concentrated in refineries and chemicals, demand diversifies from the 2030s, with roughly 34% directed toward synthetic fuel production by 2050. Synthetic kerosene, green ammonia, and synthetic methanol account for nearly 90% of synthetic fuel output, serving aviation, shipping, and chemicals respectively. These results underscore that climate neutrality requires simultaneous, rapid scaling of renewable electricity, electrolytic hydrogen, and synthetic fuel infrastructure across the EU.