Multi-model assessment of global hydrogen trade under Paris-aligned scenarios

Hydrogen is expected to facilitate global energy system transitions, particularly in hard-to-decarbonise industry and transport sectors. Hydrogen trade can introduce additional flexibility into the energy system by enabling the global movement of energy from regions with abundant and cheap electricity generation. Despite the growing policy interest in hydrogen trade, the future scale and structure of the trade market remain highly uncertain, especially given uncertainties in supply, demand, infrastructure, and policy development. While several models have explored hydrogen supply, demand, and transport costs, systematic assessments of global trade that integrate wider energy system dynamics and cross-model uncertainty remain limited.

We develop a multi-model scenario intercomparison approach using two energy system models, TIAM-UCL and MESSAGEix, to investigate prospects for the global hydrogen trade market in 1.5 °C and 2 °C scenario pathways. We implement six Paris-aligned scenarios under a harmonised scenario protocol across both models, incorporating variations in hydrogen trade availability and trade policy targets derived from announced national hydrogen trade strategies. Our results indicate that hydrogen trade is essential to support the growth of the hydrogen economy needed to achieve Paris-aligned climate targets. Global hydrogen trade is likely to develop primarily through intra-regional pipeline networks, reaching 3–22 EJ/yr by 2050 across models and scenarios, while international liquid hydrogen trade emerges in 2050–2060 and averages 1–6 EJ/yr (5–10% of total hydrogen supply). This makes cross-border infrastructure and regional coordination critical for hydrogen market development. Moreover, results further suggest possible misalignment between regional trade ambitions and least-cost pathways. Unlocking the full potential of hydrogen trade will require faster infrastructure deployment, stronger international policy coordination, and better alignment between national strategies and global decarbonisation pathways.