Transport Decarbonization Pathways in Taiwan: Assessing NDC Alignment and Net-Zero Gaps

This study projects mitigation pathways for Taiwan’s transport sector aligned with its 2030 and 2035 Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), using the Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP). The model is structured by transport service, mode, vehicle category, and fuel type, with assumptions on demand, technology penetration and energy intensity assigned according to projected socio-economic trends and technology readiness levels. Scenario analyses compare the 2030 NDC, enhanced 2030 NDC, 2035 NDC, and 2050 net-zero emissions pathways to evaluate mitigation capacity and residual emissions gaps. Results show that successive NDC updates progressively deepen mitigation outcomes: the 2035 NDC scenario reduces emissions by 4.5% in 2030 and 17.0% in 2035 relative to NDC 3.0 targets and remains insufficient to achieve net-zero emissions, with residual emissions arising mainly from private and freight vehicles in road transport, reflecting incomplete electrification, slow fleet turnover, and limited availability of alternative fuels. A 2050 net-zero scenario is therefore designed to assess options and identify plausible interventions beyond current incremental NDC policies, including but not limited to deep electrification, accelerated fleet turnover, stronger demand-side management, broader coverage of freight and heavy-duty vehicles, and clean alternatives. Results show that projected emission pathway is able to  reach 3.30 MtCO₂e by 2050, aligning with the pledged 2050 net-zero roadmap and the legally binding target. The findings suggest that decarbonization rely on deeper, faster, and broader mitigation actions beyond current NDC commitments.