Borrowed Youth: Demographic Change and Multinational Location Advantage

Borrowed Youth: Demographic Change and Multinational Location Advantage

In 2015 Slovakia had 65.4 residents aged 20–64 per hundred residents, against 56.6 in Mexico. Aging the same residents through the twenty years in the Jaguar Land Rover appraisal gives 76 people reaching age 20 for every 100 reaching 65 in Slovakia, against 203 in Mexico. The series use a fixed 2015 base, residence and survival. Puebla's labour market helped qualify it for the shortlist. The board selected Nitra and valued the strategic factors together. Under the cash-only aid comparison the funded lead is at most EUR91 million. A hypothetical route loss that leaves the opening workforce intact would exceed that maximum at 223 net placements per year under exponential productive tenure of 4.57 years, exactly EUR10,000 net per staffed position-year, five-percent continuous discounting and a twenty-year life. These are conditional decision thresholds. The record does not report the plant's actual placements.

Version 3.43.0 draws on the included Commission decision, Eurostat national age cells and previously deposited investment estimates. The two comparisons fix project scope and the feasible alternative. The staffing requirements are counterfactual appraisal quantities. The public record prices the strategic considerations collectively. The original reference distributions, joint tests and economic bounds are retained. The primary adjusted p-values are 0.513 and 0.212. The firm projection is on the zero-price boundary.

The manuscript comprises 9,899 counted words, a 163-word abstract and 21 full substantive pages before references. The anonymous manuscript has 41 pages and the online appendix 154. The data and code reconstruct 2,015 files with 2,014 checksums. The manuscript, appendix, complete LaTeX source and editable tables are available here. Follow README.txt to restore the replication files. Licensed WRDS rows require subscriber access. Queries and aggregate outputs are supplied. Third-party rights apply.

ChatGPT and Codex (OpenAI) were used in October 2026 for coding help, literature search, and red teaming and review. All figures were created using AI.

Neither panel supports Hypothesis 1 that longer-lived investments give arrivals greater weight. The full country arrival association is positive (p = 0.008). The opening-stock estimate is negative and its interval includes zero (p = 0.051). Both firm intervals include zero. Figure 6 displays the primary engineering-life estimate and the two common-sample comparisons. The two anonymous PDFs are available together in Anonymous_Review_PDFs.zip. Online Appendix D documents the secondary use of the Clemens and Lewis employer data.