Poverty in India, 2026–2029: Consumption Projections and Fiscal-Incidence Estimates of Public Services

This paper reconstructs India’s September 2026 Poverty and Inequality Platform consumption projection using 261,895 household records and estimates the distri-
butional incidence of additional noncash public services. Consumption-poverty headcounts in 2026 are 1.396 percent at $3.00 and 10.240 percent at $4.20 per person per day (2021 PPP). Assigning a programme-defined core portfolio produces fiscal-cost-equivalent headcounts of 0.706 and 0.335 percent at $3.00, and 6.961 and 4.360 percent at $4.20, under equal and progressive allocation, respectively. An extended portfolio including a state social-welfare expenditure residual yields progressive headcounts of 0.078 percent at $3.00 and 1.629 percent at $4.20. The analysis extends the household distribution to 2029 using published World Bank growth projections for FY2026–27 through FY2028–29 and a consistent consumption pass-through. Under the central path, the 2029 consumption headcounts are 0.558 and 5.104 percent; the core progressive headcounts are 0.099 and 1.831 percent. The PIP-based $4.20 consumption headcount falls by 36.9 percent between 2026 and 2028, compared with 14.8 percent in the World Bank’s October 2026 microsimulation.