LAB #4954 NEUTRAL: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Session = LONDON_OPEN — improves win rate from 31.7% to 35.1% (+3.3pp, n — E8 Intelligence Research
Description
IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: Session = LONDON_OPEN — improves win rate from 31.7% to 35.1% (+3.3pp, n=388) SAME-WINDOW EFFECT: The London Open filter (roughly 08:00–11:00 London, i.e. 09:00–12:00 CET) would have kept most of the live window intact, since nearly every entry listed — 10:25, 10:38, 10:41, 10:55, 11:01, 11:05, 11:35, 11:39, 11:45 — falls inside that band. So the filter would have blocked almost nothing here: the three CLOSED/LOSS trades (EURUSD, XAUUSD, AUDUSD) all sit inside London Open and would still have been taken, meaning the realized loss profile is essentially unchanged. The +3.3pp headline is therefore not validated by this window — the live sample is a near-pure subset of the filtered condition, so it can neither confirm nor deny the edge. OVER-TIME PROJECTION: If the +3.3pp is real and stable, it lifts a 31.7% base to ~35.1%, which on a 1:2R profile is the difference between marginal and viable — but 388
Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com