LAB #4941 NEUTRAL: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Quarterly phase = ACCUMULATION — improves win rate from 31.7% to 44.2% ( — E8 Intelligence Research

IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: Quarterly phase = ACCUMULATION — improves win rate from 31.7% to 44.2% (+12.5pp, n=138) SAME-WINDOW EFFECT: The filter would only bind on trades whose entry timestamp falls in a quarter classified ACCUMULATION — of the 10 live trades listed (Sep 3–11, 2026), that's a Q3 window, so the filter is either fully on or fully off for this entire set; it cannot selectively remove the three losers (EURUSD, XAUUSD, AUDUSD) while keeping the two winners (USDCHF, USDCAD). If Q3 2026 is ACCUMULATION, nothing changes in this window and the filter's claimed +12.5pp is untested here; if it isn't, all 10 trades are suppressed, including both winners, and the window goes from 2W/3L/5 rejected to zero trades — a PnL delta of roughly minus the two wins. Either way this window provides almost no evidence for the filter, because a quarterly regime flag has no within-window resolution. OVER-TIME PROJECTION: A quarterly ph

Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com