Strategic Fury: From Distant Energy Recruitment to Local Kinetic-Energy Concentration in Tropical Cyclones

This exploratory study evaluates whether intense tropical cyclones exhibit compensating distant atmospheric energy export and local convergence, and investigates an alternative explanation based on spatial kinetic-energy concentration.

A global ERA5 atmospheric energy-budget analysis examined 20 intense tropical cyclones across four ocean basins from 2015 to 2020, using NOAA IBTrACS storm records. Only one storm exhibited the complete proposed donor–receiver signature. Sixteen of the 20 storms instead showed positive local atmospheric energy-flux-divergence anomalies, providing limited support for the initial distant-energy-recruitment hypothesis.

Cyclone Marcus (2018) was subsequently examined using six-hourly atmospheric and ocean-surface observations, with matched calendar periods from 2017 and 2019. Hurricane Irma (2017) provided a second concentration case. Both storms exhibited pronounced localization of atmospheric specific kinetic energy relative to their surroundings.

For Marcus, the core-to-surroundings concentration ratio increased from approximately 0.94 before development to 7.29 near peak intensity before declining during weakening. Irma exhibited comparable concentration but different timing relative to its maximum sustained winds.

Exploratory analyses indicated that changes in kinetic-energy concentration contained predictive information about subsequent intensity changes for Marcus, but the relationship was not robustly replicated in Irma.

These findings motivate a rogue-wave analogy in which extreme atmospheric events involve transient organization and localization of energy within a broader dynamic system. The results do not establish a universal mechanism, causal energy transfer, or a closed planetary energy budget.

The accompanying research archive provides derived observations, analytical scripts, methodological documentation, and reproducibility notes. Both supporting and negative findings are preserved to facilitate independent validation.

This work is an exploratory research preprint. The analyses were developed iteratively and were not preregistered. Statistical associations and predictive improvements require independent validation.

The accompanying archive includes derived datasets and research scripts. Original ERA5 and NOAA input datasets are not redistributed. Some scripts require local path adjustments and access to the upstream climate datasets for full reproduction.