Seasonal and Regional Variations in CO2 Concentrations: A Large-Scale Sensor-Based Study from Croatian Schools Using Machine Learning

© Atmosphere 2026

https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos17010106

Abstract
This study investigates indoor CO2 levels in Croatian schools to identify environmental and temporal factors influencing classroom air quality. Using data from hundreds of low-cost sensors installed in 243 schools, we analyze seasonal patterns and differences in CO2 concentrations between schools. In two-shift schools, the longer occupied period was associated with CO2 remaining elevated later in the day. Time-series forecasting with the Prophet model accounts for seasonal variations, while statistical analyses quantify variability and identify key factors driving concentration differences. Additionally, Land Use Regression (LUR) models are developed and compared with direct sensor measurements at the school level to assess their association with CO2 levels across different counties in the country. The results reveal consistent seasonal trends and notable local differences between schools, emphasizing the importance of detailed monitoring in environments with vulnerable populations. This research offers insights into the strengths and limitations of statistical and modeling methods for school-based air quality assessment and provides recommendations for enhancing monitoring strategies in similar large-scale networks.