Published October 27, 2026 | Version v1

Knotenlinie global long-term anchor, Rev. 2 (Turkey excluded): preregistration (frozen 2026-10-28, re-frozen 2026-10-29, scoring window 2021-2025 sealed)

Authors/Creators

Description

Preregistration, revision 2, of a frozen global M>=5.95, depth <=70 km long-term forecast map (GRA-83 recipe, catalogue <=2013) versus GEAR1, scored once on 2021-01-01..2026-01-01 after the owner lifts the data seal. Revision 2 excludes the Turkey region (box 24.4-46.1 E, 34.4-43.6 N) from both the catalogue query and the score; measured region share 0.006. Fingerprints: DONDUR.json sha256 2d1bd405273470d8e33273fc460300a197d31a334c53c4d894b496ae8cd0ae19 (re-frozen 2026-10-29 with the same maps, texts and job file after adding a dry-run mode and a freeze-time lint to the scoring code; replaces d5a5c78d243812e6d0fbbd1534f2bd402a236574c64d8d699bc0e2996d2b5bbd of 2026-10-28 and revision 1, b1b25f3a64775b088f6e9bd894de79aa699de7e86cc03a7ac046160a6646ea18). Forecast files are not uploaded before scoring.

Dry run before publication (2026-10-29). The frozen package, its token and a job file mechanically derived from the frozen opening job file were run end to end on the unsealed window 2014-01-01..2016-01-01: all gates (token, integrity, code, units, region) passed, coverage OK, exit 0. The dry run carries no claim.

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