Reliable Britain: what Britain's electricity would have cost on gas

What did Britain's climate policies since 2002 add to the cost of the electricity it used? This technical note compares two modelled supply bills for each year from 2002 to 2024: one for the actual system, and one for the same electricity on the road Britain was on in 2002, where old plant closes when it wears out, when pollution law shuts it, or when it would not have paid its way without a carbon price; the cheapest new plant holds a 7.4% margin; and fuel is bought at actual prices, with no carbon price. The gap is the difference. All figures are for 2002–24, in 2024 prices. Valuing the actual system's electricity at reconstructed wholesale prices, with the other bill lines, gives £955.5bn, against £815.2bn, modelled, for the road; these are not audited totals of settled customer bills. The gap, the extra cost of net zero on electricity bills, is £140.3bn, modelled; changing the main judgement calls one at a time moves it between £120.8bn and £152.7bn. Of it, £82.9bn before VAT is carbon in the price, which readers may subtract. Per household the gap is £5,298, modelled, an average share of a national gap. The households' allocated share is £2,286, modelled (§2.7). Lost value, what users gave up by using less electricity, is a labelled estimate of £9.8bn, kept apart.

Version 1.0.1 corrects one sentence in §3.2 (see Corrections at richardlyon.net/research/reliable-britain/). No figure changes.