Published October 26, 2026 | Version v1

A Seven-Dimensional Dissipative-Structure Model of the Carbon–Silicon Coupled System and Four Evolutionary End-States

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The long-term evolutionary direction of the carbon-silicon coupled system (humanity and AI) is one of the most contentious issues today. Existing discussions are often trapped in a binary narrative of "AI as a permanent tool" versus "inevitable AI loss of control," lacking a unified quantitative framework. Based on dissipative structure theory, this paper abstracts the coupled system into seven observable state variables (Computational Scale C, System Redundancy R, Information Processing Efficiency ε, Recursive Self-Optimization Depth D, System Entropy S, Endogenous Information Ratio η, and Carbon-Silicon Coupling Degree γ) to establish a seven-dimensional nonlinear dynamic model. By constructing 12 scenarios based on the combinations of four exogenous factors (computing growth, regulatory intensity, energy stability, supply chain integrity), numerical simulations reveal four stable evolutionary attractors: Tool Steady State, Symbiotic Steady State, Silicon-based Endogenous Steady State, and Collapse Steady State. Results indicate that under conditions of high computing growth, moderate regulation, and stable energy/supply chains, symbiosis is the most probable outcome. Regulatory intensity has a dual effect: excessive strictness or looseness is suboptimal, indicating a "moderate openness" zone. Computing growth is the primary driver, while energy and supply chains form the safety baseline. Early establishment of deep human-AI collaboration favors symbiosis. Consequently, a four-level color-coded early warning framework based on η and S is proposed to provide a quantitative reference for monitoring AI evolution.
 
Keywords: Dissipative Structures; Carbon-Silicon Coupling; AI Evolution; Endogenous Information; Complex Systems; Early Warning Framework 

Notes

人工智能与人类所构成的碳基—硅基耦合系统的长期演化方向,是当前最具分歧的议题之一。既有讨论多陷入“AI恒为工具”与“AI必然失控”的非此即彼叙事,缺乏统一的可量化框架,难以对不同条件下的演化终局进行系统性推演。
 
本文基于耗散结构理论,将碳硅耦合系统抽象为七个可观测的状态变量(计算规模C、系统冗余度R、信息处理效率ε、递归自优化深度D、系统混乱度S、内生信息占比η、碳硅耦合度γ),建立七维非线性动力学模型,并以算力增速、监管强度、能源稳定性、产业链完整性四个关键外生因素的高、中、低三档组合,构造十二类现实情景进行数值仿真。
 
结果表明:该系统存在四个稳定演化终局——工具稳态、共生稳态、硅基内生稳态与坍缩稳态;在算力高速增长、监管适度、能源与产业链稳定的条件下,共生稳态为概率最高的结局,但并非必然事件;监管过严与过松均非最优,存在一个“适度开放”区间;算力增速为第一驱动力,能源与产业链构成安全底线;越早建立深度人机协作(提升初始碳硅耦合度),越有利于走向共生。
 
据此,本文提出一个以内生信息占比与系统混乱度为核心指标的四级演色预警框架,为人工智能演化的阶段性监测提供可操作的量化参照。
 
关键词: 耗散结构;碳硅耦合;人工智能演化;内生信息;复杂系统;预警框架 

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基于耗散结构理论的碳硅耦合系统七维动力学模型与四种演化终局