Beyond Livestock and Agri-commodities: Export Diversification and Trade Defensive Instruments Under the AfCFTA Framework in Somalia

Background: This doctoral research paper investigates the strategic imperatives, econometric dynamics, and legal complexities of export diversification and the operationalization of trade defensive instruments in Somalia within the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) framework. Objective: Embodying a robust mixed-methods methodology, this study employs a structural gravity model estimated via Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood (PPML) alongside comprehensive Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) matrices to isolate trade elasticities and sectoral competitive shifts. Methods: Historically anchored in primary commodity exports—predominantly live animals, sesame, and frankincense directed toward the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)—the Somali economy suffers from extreme macroeconomic volatility driven by climate shocks, shifting geopolitical landscapes, and institutional fragility. Results: The empirical findings demonstrate that while full AfCFTA liberalization generates substantial trade creation, it introduces an asymmetric risk profile: imports from highly industrialised regional hubs are projected to expand by forty-two percent over a five-year horizon, vastly outstripping initial domestic export growth and creating an imminent threat of infant industry displacement. Conclusion: Conversely, the analysis uncovers substantial, unexploited comparative advantages in non-traditional sectors, most notably the blue economy, where Somalia's marine products (HS Code 03) demonstrate a surging RCA from 0.45 in 2017 to 1.65 by 2025.