LAB #4612 NEUTRAL: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Quarterly phase = DISTRIBUTION — improves win rate from 32.2% to 36.9% ( — E8 Intelligence Research

IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: Quarterly phase = DISTRIBUTION — improves win rate from 32.2% to 36.9% (+4.7pp, n=111) SAME-WINDOW EFFECT: Applying the DISTRIBUTION-phase filter over the current live window would have rejected the 3 open/rejected trades (USDCHF LONG, EURJPY SHORT, AUDUSD LONG) — all currently unresolved. Among the 7 closed trades, 4 were wins and 3 were losses; if the filter had removed any of those, the win rate would shift. Given the backtest delta (+4.7pp), the filter likely removes low-quality entries during accumulation/markup phases, but in this small window it would only affect the 3 open trades — none of which have resolved, so no definitive PnL delta can be claimed. The closed-trade win rate (4/7 = 57%) is already above the filtered backtest rate, suggesting the filter may not improve this particular sample. OVER-TIME PROJECTION: Over 3–6 months, a DISTRIBUTION-phase-only filter could meaningfully reduce

Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com