LAB #4611 NEUTRAL: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Quarterly phase = MANIPULATION — improves win rate from 32.2% to 33.1% ( — E8 Intelligence Research

IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: Quarterly phase = MANIPULATION — improves win rate from 32.2% to 33.1% (+0.9pp, n=1498) SAME-WINDOW EFFECT: Applying the MANIPULATION-phase filter to the live window above would have blocked the three REJECTED/open trades (USDCHF LONG 0.81152, EURJPY SHORT, AUDUSD LONG 0.71755) — all of which are currently unresolved and likely entered during that phase. Among the seven closed trades, none show a clear phase label, so the filter would not have altered any of the four wins or three losses. Net effect on this small sample: no change to realized PnL, but it would have removed three open positions that carry unknown forward risk, potentially reducing drawdown if those trades fail. Expected win-rate delta here is ~0% on closed trades, but variance reduction is plausible. OVER-TIME PROJECTION: Over 3–6 months, a +0.9pp win-rate improvement (32.2%→33.1%) on ~1,500 backtested trades is marginal and within n

Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com