MODEL ADOPTION #4606: REJECT — LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Min confirmations >= 6 — improves win rate from 31.6% to 35.8% — E8 Intelligence Research
Description
DECISION: REJECT ELEMENT: No element survives — the ≥6-confirmation filter is a statistical artifact, not an E8-geometry edge. It does not align with the model's rhythm logic (Gods-Clock) and would delay entries past the fade-zone trigger, violating the core timing premise. EXPECTED IMPACT: Win-rate lift (+4.2pp) is likely overfit to n=907 and not reproducible in live conditions. Filtering trades with <6 confirmations removes early-momentum fades that E8-node timing specifically targets — these often have asymmetric payoffs (large TP2 winners). Net profit impact: negative or neutral, because delayed entries worsen fills on fast breakouts, converting would-be winners into losers via slippage. RISK: (1) Slippage degradation on delayed entries — the 6th confirmation often occurs after the fade zone has expired, so the model would enter against the rhythm. (2) Regime dependence — in trending markets, waiting for 6 confirmations kills the signal entirely; in choppy markets, it may hel
Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com