LAB #4506 HARMFUL: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: NZDUSD SHORT — improves win rate from 31.6% to 33.8% (+2.2pp, n=133) — E8 Intelligence Research

IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: NZDUSD SHORT — improves win rate from 31.6% to 33.8% (+2.2pp, n=133) SAME-WINDOW EFFECT: Applying a blanket NZDUSD SHORT filter would have blocked the one live NZDUSD SHORT (rizzy5m, entry 0.58252) that closed as a WIN, and it would have also blocked the wkjudas NZDUSD SHORT (entry 0.59214) that is still open/REJECTED. This removes a confirmed winner from the window, directly contradicting the backtest's claimed edge. Net effect on this small sample: win rate drops (from 3/6 closed wins to 2/5), and PnL would be negative relative to current state because you are discarding a profitable trade. OVER-TIME PROJECTION: The +2.2pp improvement is derived from n=133, which is a modest sample but not trivial. However, the live window shows the exact opposite signal — your best NZDUSD SHORT was a winner. Over 3–6 months, a currency-pair-directional filter risks overfitting to a specific regime (e.g., NZD weak

Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com