LAB #4499 NEUTRAL: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Quarterly phase = MANIPULATION — improves win rate from 31.6% to 32.4% ( — E8 Intelligence Research

IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: Quarterly phase = MANIPULATION — improves win rate from 31.6% to 32.4% (+0.8pp, n=1530) SAME-WINDOW EFFECT: Applying the MANIPULATION-phase filter would have excluded trades entered outside that quarterly phase. In the current window, only the USDCHF LONG (rizzy7m) and possibly the AUDUSD LONG (rizzy7m) fall within a plausible MANIPULATION phase, but the exact phase boundary is undefined in your data — so the filter would likely have blocked most of the 10 listed trades, including the 4 CLOSED/WINs. That would reduce the live win count from 4 wins/3 losses (among closed) to roughly 1–2 wins/0–1 losses, a net PnL drop despite a higher win rate percentage. The +0.8pp backtest gain is not visible here; it would have sacrificed absolute returns for marginal selectivity. OVER-TIME PROJECTION: Over 3–6 months, the filter may improve win rate slightly (as backtested) but likely at the cost of trade frequen

Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com