MODEL ADOPTION #4470: REJECT — LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Min confirmations >= 5 — improves win rate from 31.5% to 33.0% — E8 Intelligence Research

DECISION: REJECT ELEMENT: No element survives — the +1.4pp win-rate gain is not a testable edge under E8 geometry timing; it is a statistical artifact of removing low-frequency signals that never reached live status in this window. The filter's only concrete effect here is reducing exposure (removing two open trades), not improving realized PnL. EXPECTED IMPACT: Win rate unchanged (4W/2L/2O remains), profit unchanged, but trade frequency drops ~10-15% — net negative for absolute returns. The backtest gain is likely regime-dependent and not tied to E8's rhythm logic (confirmation count is a lagging, non-geometric metric). RISK: Overfitting to a short backtest window; confirmation lag degrades entry prices in fast moves (NFP, breakouts), shrinking average R-multiple; filter removes high-volatility winners that E8's fade polarity specifically targets. TEST: Before any reconsideration, run a 90-day replay-bench on the live engine's historical tick data (not shadow) with the filter

Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com