A data-science study of how visible women's economic activity is: measurement model, uncertainty, sensitivity, scenarios and value of information - Federated States of Micronesia

The Gender Economic Visibility Index (GEVI) asks whether women’s economic activity is present, measured and recognised in the systems that set policy, budgets and taxes. This paper applies the index to Federated States of Micronesia as a data-science measurement problem: 13 inputs are converted to parity scores, aggregated into five dimensions by a weighted geometric mean, and run through a Monte Carlo model of 10,000 draws that varies indicator scores and dimension weights together.

The Federated States of Micronesia score a GEVI of 56.6 (90% interval 51.5 to 60.3), third of 15 and in the Partial band. The rank rests on two strong inputs, a 37.5% share of women among ministers and a firm-ownership figure of 86.8%, and the second of these dates from 2009. Four of 13 inputs are imputed (blind-spot ratio 0.31), and three measured inputs are graded B for age.

The strongest dimension is labour participation (0.749) and the weakest is statistical and political voice (0.339), which takes the largest Shapley share (38%) of the 43.4-point gap to full parity. Of the 13 inputs, 6 are grade A, 3 are grade B and 4 are grade C (imputed). Across seven weighting schemes the rank runs from 1 to 3, and across ten alternative specifications from 3 to 8, with the score moving by up to 11.7 points. Raising data coverage to 9 of 12 rows is worth +6.6 points, and a greedy pathway of +0.10 steps on measured indicators reaches the 65-point Emerging threshold after 7 steps. Every number is reproducible from the accompanying Python scripts with a fixed random seed of 2026.