A data-science study of how visible women's economic activity is: measurement model, uncertainty, sensitivity, scenarios and value of information - Timor-Leste

The Gender Economic Visibility Index (GEVI) asks whether women’s economic activity is present, measured and recognised in the systems that set policy, budgets and taxes. This paper applies the index to Timor-Leste as a data-science measurement problem: 13 inputs are converted to parity scores, aggregated into five dimensions by a weighted geometric mean, and run through a Monte Carlo model of 10,000 draws that varies indicator scores and dimension weights together.

Timor-Leste scores a GEVI of 63.7 (90% interval 59.1 to 68.2), the highest in the series and at the top of the Partial band. It combines near-parity youth outcomes, the highest legal-rights score (68.2%) and the highest share of women in parliament (35.4%), and every input is measured (blind-spot ratio 0.00). Even so, no PITAA member reaches the 65-point Emerging threshold.

The strongest dimension is labour participation (0.913) and the weakest is institutional visibility (0.360), which takes the largest Shapley share (34%) of the 36.3-point gap to full parity. All 13 inputs are grade A. Across seven weighting schemes the rank runs from 1 to 3, and across ten alternative specifications it stays at 1, although the score moves by at most 7.7 points. The largest single-lever scenario, lifting management and firm ownership to 0.75, is worth +3.5 points, and a greedy pathway of +0.10 steps on measured indicators reaches the 65-point Emerging threshold after 2 steps. Every number is reproducible from the accompanying Python scripts with a fixed random seed of 2026.