The Missing Partner: UAE National Statistics and the Mirror of Suriname's Gold Exports, 2019–2025
Description
Correction, 20 October 2026: May 2024 is not absent from CBvS table 25; its date cell is stored as text. The central bank records 26.87 tonnes in 2024 over twelve months, and partner-reported imports are 1.10 to 1.14 times that volume (not 1.11 to 1.15). Details: Deviation note 1, monitor release 1.2, https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.23501031.
Version 1.1 adds Addendum 1, "Suriname's two export denominators". The note itself is unchanged. The addendum compares Suriname's declaration to UN Comtrade with the central bank's gold export series (CBvS, table 25): in 2024 the central bank records at least 24.5 tonnes over eleven months, against 14.3 tonnes declared to UN Comtrade. By weight, partner-reported imports are 1.11 to 1.15 times the central-bank volume, with May imputed, against 2.07 to 2.14 times the UN Comtrade declaration. The figures of Note No. 2 stand; one inference drawn from them is qualified.
Institut Atlantique Sud Research Note No. 2.
Institut Atlantique Sud Research Note No. 1 found that partner-reported imports of gold from Suriname exceed Suriname-reported exports, but could not measure 2024–2025 because the United Arab Emirates (UAE) had not reported those years to UN Comtrade. This note fills the gap with the UAE's own national statistics.
For 2019–2023, UAE imports from Suriname in Harmonized System section XIV (precious metals), as published by the Federal Competitiveness and Statistics Centre, coincide with the UAE's HS 7108 records in UN Comtrade to within USD 160 a year, and account for 99.8–99.96% of all UAE imports from Suriname. The national series is therefore the same series, not a proxy.
With the UAE included, importing countries report 2.10 times the value, and an estimated 2.07–2.14 times the weight, of the gold Suriname reported exporting in 2024 — a gap of about 15–16 tonnes — against 1.00 and 0.98 in the calibration years 2021–2022.
The 2025 reading, indeterminate in Note No. 1, shows an excess under both bounds (1.20–2.27 by weight). Monthly UAE data show no concentration of imports at year end. Over 2019–2025, partner-reported imports exceed Suriname-reported exports under both bounds in five of seven years, the two others being the calibration years. The note documents a discrepancy between official declarations; it does not attribute it to any actor.
Data, code and hashes: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22902893
Files
IAS_RN02_The_Missing_Partner_v1.pdf
Additional details
Related works
- Continues
- Working paper: 10.5281/zenodo.22898437 (DOI)
- Is referenced by
- Working paper: 10.5281/zenodo.23186637 (DOI)
- Is supplemented by
- Dataset: 10.5281/zenodo.22902893 (DOI)
References
- Bachelin Sena, A. (2026a). Destination Unspecified: Suriname's Gold Exports in Partner-Country Trade Statistics, 2019–2025. IAS Research Note No. 1. Institut Atlantique Sud. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22898437
- Bachelin Sena, A. (2026b). Suriname gold mirror-trade monitor (UN Comtrade, HS 7108): protocol, code and derived tables. Version 1.0: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22898406; version 1.1: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22902893
- Federal Competitiveness and Statistics Centre (2026a). Foreign Trade – Imports by HS Section by Country, Annual. FCSA:DF_TRADE_IMP_SECT_YR, version 5.1.0. UAE.Stat, https://uaestat.fcsc.gov.ae (accessed 22 September 2026).
- Federal Competitiveness and Statistics Centre (2026b). Foreign Trade – Imports by Country, Monthly. FCSA:DF_TRADE_IMP_COUNTRY_MTH, version 5.1.0. Via Arab Development Portal, UN-ESCWA, https://data.arabdevelopmentportal.org (accessed 22 September 2026).
- LBMA (2020–2026). Annual Precious Metals Forecast Survey, results announcements for 2019–2025 (actual annual average LBMA Gold Price, PM). London Bullion Market Association.
- United Nations (2011). International Merchandise Trade Statistics: Concepts and Definitions 2010. Studies in Methods, Series M, No. 52, Rev. 3. New York: United Nations.