Replication package: Measuring Trade Direction in a Prediction Market (Settlement Ground Truth and Trading-Cost Measurement on Polymarket)

Replication package for Philipp D. Dubach, Measuring Trade Direction in a Prediction Market: Settlement Ground Truth and Trading-Cost Measurement on Polymarket. Paper: arXiv:2610.06412 (https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.06412).

The package contains the analysis code, saved results, manuscript sources and every derived file used for the reported analyses. It covers twelve selected settlement-validation days between April and August 2026, alongside supporting venue, tick-size and collector diagnostics. The cached benchmark signs the complete daily trade tapes before settlement selection; the trading-cost analysis compares classifications on identical eligible fills under equal-fill and share-volume weights. These measures are delivered-quote accounting quantities and do not identify causal price impact or private information.

Version 1.4 includes the revised 41-page manuscript and standalone arXiv source bundle, plus a reproducible observed-print example connecting the public print, settlement legs, prior quote and signing error. All aggregate result values, seventeen tables, seven manuscript figures and sixteen deposited derived-data files are unchanged from version 1.2. README.md documents the input layout and reproduction commands. COMMIT, manifest.json, SHA256SUMS and the code archive's internal file checksums identify the deposited contents.

The PMXT raw order-book archive is not redistributed. Code is released under MIT; author-produced data are released under CC BY 4.0. Third-party data retain their own terms. The companion paper is arXiv:2604.24366. Public replication code: https://github.com/philippdubach/polymarket-trade-direction-replication.