Financial Viability of a Proposed 50 MW Solar PV Project in Ghana: A FINPLAN Sensitivity Analysis

Decarbonising aviation requires cleaner fuels supported by low-emission production processes. Supplying renewable electricity to a Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) refinery could reduce emissions associated with its electricity use and contribute to net-zero ambitions. This study examines a proposed 50 MW solar photovoltaic project intended to supply a proposed SAF refinery in the Tema industrial area of Ghana.

Using FINPLAN, four sensitivity analyses assess how construction duration, cedi depreciation, electricity tariff reductions and concessional financing affect shareholder returns and debt-servicing capacity. The selected base case records Project/Shareholder NPV of 1,411.6 and Equity IRR of 27.30%, but Minimum DSCR of 1.2 indicates limited repayment headroom.

Within the respective sensitivity analyses, extending construction from two to six years preserves positive NPV while increasing interest payments by 76.3%. Cedi depreciation from GHS12 to GHS16/USD reduces Minimum DSCR from 1.4 to 1.0, while a tariff of GHS0.60/kWh lowers it to 0.6 despite positive NPV. Removing concessional finance raises interest costs by 32.5% and Stand-by Facility requirements approximately 14.6-fold.

The findings show that attractive returns alone do not ensure reliable debt repayment. Timely delivery, currency-risk management, sustainable tariffs and appropriately structured concessional finance are therefore important to sustaining renewable electricity supply for the proposed SAF refinery.